Dave Gee: Life from Right Field

Members of the Green Party have been in a bouyant mood recently, with positive press and positive polls for the party ahead of this month's general election.

The largely positive press they can put down to the unwritten rule in the "mainstream media", which does its best to paint the Greens in a flattering light, and frowns upon seriously questioning their policies or people.

For the positive polling the party can largely thank Labour, which despite a strong start to the campaign has struggled to put forward a programme for the country which is both cohesive and appeals to middle New Zealand.

The Greens' pushbikes did hit a speedbump this week, with revelations party member Jolyon White co-ordinated the nationwide vandalism of 700 National Party billboards. White's partner had been working as co-leader Russel Norman's executive assistant, but apparently didn't mention the wild greens' plans to him.

However the media seemed quick to dismiss the actions by the green activists, despite criticism of similar vandalism by other candidates. (It obviously wasn't fair to mention that a charge of wilful damage normally carries a maximum penalty of three months imprisonment or a $2000 fine.)


Political journalists and commentators have been keeping busy, breathlessly championing the fact that the Green Party is at record levels of support. The story goes the watermelons are on track to break the psychological 10% barrier at this election, returning as many as 15 MPs.

But greenies around the country should be wary of counting their free-range chickens before they hatch.

Political opinion polls have traditionally overstated levels of voter support for the Greens compared to their true election impact. Or to put it another way, the Green Party has consistently underperformed at the polls on election day in every MMP election.

A look back to the time of the 2008 election reveals the Greens hit a peak of 11.5% support just a month out from polling day in the highly regarded Roy Morgan Poll, along with 9% results in polls for One News and 3 News.

At the time, John Armstrong from NZ Herald noted, "On the Roy Morgan poll's results, the Greens would go from six MPs to 14..."


"It may be that the Greens are now reaping the reward for years of being upfront, honest to a fault and transparent about their intentions."

We all know what happened on election night. A visibly disappointed Jeanette Fitzsimons had to front the party faithful and admit the Greens had gained just two additional MPs (increasing to 3 additional MPs after special votes came in, bringing the total vote to 6.72%).

Voter apathy amongst the Greens' target demographics has been suggested as one reason for the disparity in poll results and actual voting support. The unemployed, unimaginative, and just-plain-lazy have never been big on lining up at the polling booths. Other swinging voters simply wake up and smell the (fair trade) coffee when they find themselves alone in the polling booth.

Another achilles heal for the Greens is their theoretically healthy share of younger voters. State schools and Universities have become adept at greenwashing students, which often (knowingly or unknowingly) transfers to support for supposed "Green" political movements.

At the 2008 General Election, eligible voters under 30 years old made up 21.4% of the total voting population. But a whopping two thirds (64%) of this age group were not actually enrolled to vote in 2008.

Given Labour's continuing poor performance, the Greens can be reasonably confident of beating 2008's 6.72% on November 26th. But I'd be very surprised if the party does manage to break its election day curse, and achieve their 2011 goal of breaking the 10% mark.