Sunday, 1 June 2008

Cullen's budget fails to halt Poll slide

The two major NZ television channels revealed the latest results of their respective political polls tonight, and neither had good news for the Labour Party.

Both included polling after Michael Cullen's Colby Budget, where he very begrudgingly "believed" in tax cuts, after nine years in the job, and after cancelling the "chewing gum" tax cuts he announced back in 2005.

Michael Cullen announced a multi-year tax cuts package totalling $10.6 billion, but for many workers that barely covers the "fiscal drag" over Labour's 9 years in power... that's the technical term to describe the loss in real earnings for workers, when tax thresholds aren't adjusted for inflation and don't keep pace with wage growth.

Both political polls recorded a drop in support for Labour, which is well behind John Key's National Party.

TV One's Colmar Brunton poll puts National on 55%, with Labour well back on 29%. That's a gap of 26%, and is apparently the worst result for Labour in at least 7 years.

TV3's TNS political poll normally favours Labour, and records a smaller but still significant gap of 15%... with National up to 50% and Labour down to 35% (says 38% online).

Both channels have the Greens over the 5% threshold (TV One: 7%, TV3: 5.8%), which they must stay over to remain in Parliament, with no hope of winning an electorate seat.

Winston Peters' return to his traditional campaign mantras of senior citizens, immigration, and public ownership have boosted NZ First slightly (4.4% and 3.9% respectively), but with no electorate seat for Winston the party would get 0 seats.

The Maori Party is still on track to cause a significant overhang in the next Parliament, recording just 2-2.5% support, but tipped to win 6-7 of the "Maori" seats.
ACT haven't yet moved up from their current 2 seats, while United Future is in danger of joining the JAPs as a Party of One.

* No Minister: Liarbour and Dear Leader: Down she goes!!!!

* Not PC: Cullen's budget didn't deliver tax cuts, and MSM finally notices

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