Dave Gee: Life from Right Field

Good work to Rodney Hide for getting the Gnats to agree to a 'fundamental review' of the Emissions Trading Scheme, as part of ACT's support deal with National.

ACT campaigned heavily on dumping the current legislation, which would be the best solution for the economy and for all New Zealanders.

Unfortunately National being National campaigned with a serious lack of spine (surprisingly with the backing of Federated Farmers), and only want to "water down the existing legislation", with John Key still keen to pass an amended ETS into law by the end of next year.

The only immediate change will be the lifting of the ban on new fossil-fuel power generation. The NZ Government are not yet planning to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol.

However, the select committee being set up to review Labour's Emissions Trading Scam will have to hear "competing views" on the so-called "science" which claims humans are to blame for climate change, as well as the merits of a carbon tax, and the timing of any changes.

Unfortunately the signals from the National Party aren't all good. Key says he personally believes "human-induced climate change was real", and has just appointed card-carrying leftie and tree hugger Nick Smith as his Environment Minister and "Minister for Climate Change Issues". Aargh!

There is some hope with the appointment of Gerry Brownlee as the new Minister of Energy. As Greenpeace today pointed out in a media release, Brownlee has publicly labelled coal as sexy in the past.

(Then again, this is the same Gerry Brownlee who in 2003 said that "ACT MPs had little respect for ordinary New Zealanders and National Party members who admired ACT should "bugger off" and join it.")

Bully Brownlee aside, the South Island of NZ in particular has immense amounts of natural resources which are not being utilised or explored.

There is huge potential for New Zealand to grow its mineral wealth, with the previous administration ensuring much of it remained buried underneath "Conservation land", areas which were greatly expanded for no real benefit, thanks to the reckless spending of tens of millions of dollars of taxpayer funds.

However, even ACT seems to have lost some of its balls, with their detailed agreement with National claiming the party...

"is not opposed to New Zealand adopting responsible climate change policies... and if a select committee inquiry establishes a credible case that New Zealanders would benefit from action by New Zealand... ACT would be prepared to support legislation giving effect to such action".

That sounds like a paragraph inserted to pacify National, but I hope it does not mean Rodney Hide and the ACT Party are considering backing down from their stance as against the whole false religion of "Climate Change".

Given that they are about the only sensible heads in the New Zealand Parliament when it comes to questioning the ever-diminishing arguments for "global warming due to CO2" (at least the only ones willing to make their views public), ACT's MPs need to stand firm against the claptrap from the misguided greenies and PC-brigade, who have bought into the myth perpetuated by the "mainstream media".

* NBR: ETS up for `fundamental review' in ACT deal

New Zealand voters have rejected the Labour Party's bid for an historic 4th term in government, and soundly rejected the lurch to the left trumpeted by commentators like Chris Trotter, if a L/P/G/NZF government was elected.

Turnout was 78.69% (including special votes). That's despite an extra 41,100 people voting, compared to the 2005 election. A record 2,979,366 people enrolled to vote in 2008, but a sizeable 634,262 people didn't make it to a voting booth.

John Key's super-centre National Party did well on the night, but didn't get the outright majority some old-school over-confident party people were hoping for.

National have accepted they need the support of the Act Party to have a Parliamentary majority, and have also adopted the party-of-one known as United Peter Dunne.

Key is also planning to reach out to the Maori Party, who will likely see sense in working with the new government, rather than spending another 3 years on the Opposition benches.

Despite what some of the Maori Party's supporters may think, the party does share a number of similar policy areas and philosophies with Act and National.
Unfortunately, the Maori Party didn't really succeed in raising their share of the party vote, but did gain one more MP (creating an overhang of 2 seats). Wellington lawyer and treaty specialist Rahui Katene managed to snare Te Tai Tonga (the South Island and lower Wellington) from Labour's Mahara Okeroa.

Luckily, the Maori Party's Marxist academic Angeline Greensill didn't succeed in her bid to take the seat of Hauraki-Waikato off Nanaia Mahuta. That may improve the party's chances of being able to work constructively with a National/Act/UF coalition government over the next term and beyond.

Meanwhile, NoMinister blogger Adolf Fiinkensein really owes me an organic lager for disagreeing with my pre-election pick that the Green Party wouldn't get near the 10% that pollsters and the media were tipping ;-)

The Greens vote doesn't tend to hold up on election day, perhaps because of apathy (ie. not voting), or a sense of reality when people get into the voting booth.

The Greens did gain 2 more MPs (still well short of their expectation of a good dozen), and have the prospect of gaining a third (Lecturer Dr Kennedy Graham) after the 200,000-odd special votes come in. The Greens do campaign hard overseas, and tend to pick up a larger-than-average share of the special votes.

The other main contender for an extra seat after special votes is Labour, with defeated West Coast-Tasman MP Damien O'Connor next on the party list.

The electorate tends to support National on the party vote, but O'Connor has previously survived by being a strong local MP, and putting local issues ahead of toeing the party line.

Labour's Hillin Cluck and Michael Cullen have both announced plans to step down from their leadership roles in the party, with a formal transition expected before Christmas.

Defence Minister Phil Goff is still being tipped as the most likely candidate to take over leader, especially after the relatively poor performance by the left's boy David Cunliffe in New Lynn, and his apparent expression of disinterest in the top job.

The Bill and Ben Party did very well for their first election campaign, gaining 0.51% of the party vote. That left them the 3rd highest polling party not to win a seat in Parliament, with only NZ First (4.21%) and the Kiwi Party (0.56%) polling higher.

Bill & Ben proved more popular than the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party (0.36%), Taito Philip Field's Pacific Party (0.33%), Destiny Church's Family Party (0.33%), and political veterans the Alliance (0.08%), Democrats for Social Credit (0.05%), and the Libertarianz (0.05%).

The Bill and Ben Party haven't had the highest of profiles this election campaign, but they have managed to attract over 5,000 supporters on Facebook (that's more than John Key and loads more than Aunty Helen!)

TV3's Campbell Live ran a good story tonight, following Pulp Sport's Bill and Ben on the campaign trail. They met up with John Key, and told him they are willing to consider a coalition with his party after Saturday night.

They acknowledge that many New Zealanders find elections and election coverage quite boring, so they have devised a special Election Night Drinking Game to spice up the big night in front of the telly.

It could be a messy night though... You have to take One drink if Helen Clark talks about trust, if John Campbell says "marvellous", if a reporter touches their earpiece, Duncan Garner pauses dramatically, the Maori Party are referred to as "kingmaker", or someone says "we're crossing live"...

Two drinks have to go down when they go live to Helen Clark's house, when a reporter is unaware they are live on air (that's always amusing!), John Key contradicts himself, or anyone says "too close to call".

Consuming is called for in situations like when John Campbell apologises for technical difficulties, or a politician cries (I'd put $10 on Judith Tizard, when she loses Auckland Central to Nikki Kaye ;-)

Blair Mulholland argues there is another good reason to vote Bill & Ben this election... Because they only have 2 people listed on the party list, gaining 5% of the vote would actually create an Underhang in Parliament, reducing the number of MPs! Yay!

The Bill and Ben Party need to get 0.5% of the party vote to get back their $1,000 election deposit. I'd say they're in with a good shot, and it would go to a good cause, with the guys are promising to put the grand "on a bar somewhere"...

* Campbell Live: Bill and Ben gear up for the election (Video)

The Electoral Commission this week told ACT leader Rodney Hide that his distinctive yellow jacket could breach Labour's 'Electoral Finance Act'.

The Commission says under the act, the jacket (which features the Act Party logo and the slogan "The guts to do what's right") could be classed as an election advertisement. They told Hide that his canary-yellow jacket needed an authorising statement to comply with the EFA.

The complaint is daft enough, as is the revelation that the complainant was 21 year old Andy Moore, a commerce student at Canterbury University, and chairman of the small but enthusiastic "Gingers for Justice" wing of the Act on Campus group.

The redhead denies he was being "colourist" with his complaint about the yellow jacket, but did it because he was "strongly opposed to the Electoral Finance Act, and just wanted to show how stupid it is".

Moore made the formal complaint to the Electoral Commission, pointing out that Hide wore the jacket in public in Newmarket. He included two photos of Hide wearing it along with a newspaper article.
Hide said was "embarrassed and pissed off at Moore". His tailor saw red over the drama, but has since made an addition to the $1,300 yellow jacket, with a new label which complies with the draconian law.

The Electoral Commission will make a final ruling on the complaint by early December, and says it will take the late authorisation statement into account.

However if it finds Hide committed an "illegal practice", the ACT leader could face a fine of $10,000, along with a $40,000 fine for the party's financial agent.

* NZ Herald: Act supporter canary jacket whistleblower

Along with the Maori Party, the Greens look like being the major beneficiaries of the protest vote against the Labour Party this election.

(I'd prefer those planning a "protest vote" to support the much more sensible The Bill And Ben Party, who have almost 5,000 supporters on their Facebook profile... That's a few thousand more than Labour Party hopeful Helen Clark!!)

But, despite what some commentators say, I don't believe the Greens will hit the 9-10% some opinion polls have given them. However if enough Green voters overcome their natural apathy, the party will probably still reach the 5% threshold it needs, with the lack of an electorate seat.

The ACT Party is saying what National Party supporters wish their MPs had the guts to say... That the crazy Emissions Trading Scheme should be consigned to the dustbin - where it belongs - not just subject to a minor rewrite like the dodgy Greenie-in-drag Nick Smith is planning.

ACT's latest tv advertisement asks New Zealanders whether they want a country where you can't choose the kind of lightbulb you can buy, how much water you can shower with, or how many children you can have. The party suggests being "Smart Green, not Watermelon Green"...

You've got to hand it to the Americans... they're not slow when it comes to new ideas to help their candidates on the campaign trail.

My story of the week comes from Virginia, where a "phony flier" has been circulated, on official-looking-but-fake Commonwealth of Virginia stationery.

The flier informs voters that because of the high turnout expected in this year's US elections, Republicans and Democrats are being asked to vote on different days! ;-)

Due to the larger than expected voter turnout in this years [sic] electorial [sic] process, An [sic] emergency session of the General Assembly has adopted the following emergency regulations to ease the load on local electorial [sic] precincts and ensure a fair electorial [sic] process.

All Republican party supporters and independent voters supporting Republican candidates shall vote on November 4th as prescribed by law.

All Democratic party supporters and independent voters supporting Democratic candidates shall vote on November 5th as adopted by emergency regulation of the Virginia General Assembly.

We are sorry for any inconvenience this may cause but felt this was the only way to ensure fairness to the complete electorial [sic] process.

Democratic Party critics are up in arms about the "stunt", and the matter is now under investigation by the Virginia State Police.

It got me wondering whether a similar campaign would work here? I reckon voters gullible enough to consider voting for the Green Party could be persuaded that the day of Sunday 9th November has been specifically set aside to take their votes this election...? ;-)

A clean sweep of all Maori electorate seats by the Maori Party may not be the foregone conclusion that many media commentators are betting on.

A Maori TV poll of the Te Tai Tonga seat (the entire South Island and a bit of Wellington) shows Labour's Mahara Okeroa holding a 10% lead over his Maori Party rival.

Okeroa (dubbed the "invisible MP" in the south) had 49% support of decided voters, with the Maori Party's Rahui Katene in second place with 39% support. However the poll found that 23% of those surveyed were undecided/don't know on their electorate candidate vote.

Maori Television has two more electorate polls to come, and both are in seats where veteran Labour MPs are fighting tough battles.

The channel's poll for Hauraki Waikato is due out next Monday (November 3) during the Native Affairs programme, and will give an indication of whether Labour's Nanaia Mahuta (who currently holds the seat of Tainui) can hold on against the challenge from the Maori Party's Angeline Greensill.

The final poll from Maori TV will also be now released on Monday night, showing the standings in the seat of Ikaroa-Rawhiti, where Maori Affairs minister Parekura Horomia is up against veteran broadcaster Derek Fox.

The number of electorates the Maori Party manage to win could be crucial in the final count after this election.
Rolling polls put the Maori Party's nationwide support at around 2.5%, entitling them to just 3 seats. That could create an overhang of 4 seats if the Maori Party did win all 7 Maori electorates, badly distorting the proportionality of Parliament under New Zealand's MMP system.

However winning just 5 of those seats, and increasing their party vote slightly could reduce the Maori Party's overhang to just 1 seat, the same as in the current Parliament.

I hope that voters supporting Maori Party candidates this election have the courage of their convictions to cast their Party Vote for the Maori Party as well, to reduce the overhang.
The debate over the continued existence of "Maori seats" has less to do with "racism" as many people try to portray it... but rather to do with the fact that setting aside separate seats for one racial group means an increased ability to affect the proportionality of Parliament... ie. messing with the whole "all votes are equal" theory of MMP.

The Maori electorates were introduced way back in 1867, when it was extremely difficult for Maori to vote (people needed to own a certain value of land to qualify to vote, but most Maori held land under common title, rather than individual title).

The bill introducing separate Maori seats was brought by Napier MP Donald McLean, who "explicitly intended his bill as a temporary measure (5 years), giving specific representation to Maori until they adopted European customs of land ownership."

The research department at New Zealand's #1 blog has been hard at work, analysing the many policies of the Green Party.

David Farrar at Kiwiblog has come up with what he admits could be a conservative list of 85 things the Greens want to ban.

He points out how the Greens are very much " a contradictory party". While they claim to stand up for civil liberties, they also want to legislate to ban a huge range of goods and services - "the ultimate Nanny State party".

The Greens are also selective when it comes to Science. Apparently scienctists are to be believed when it comes to the distorted work promoting the religion of "climate change"... but science is bad when it comes to genetic modification and other such nasties.

The list includes bans on fizzy drinks, chips and lollies in schools, banning smacking, banning advertising during kids tv programmes, banning coal mining, and banning hydro plants/thermal generation/nuclear power.

The Greens would also ban imported vehicles older than 7 years, ban crown agencies from investing "in any entity that denies climate change"!?!, ban new urban highways, ban private toll roads, ban landfills, and ban "new houses without water saving measures" (the infamous "shower drip" policy).

Make sure you check out the full list at Kiwiblog, and forward the information to your friends and family, to prevent them from making a critical mistake in the voting booth this election...